Three good days in a row. Is the correction actually ending?
Let's tally up what's happened in the last week. SpaceX's IPO debut closed up 19% with zero negative spillover into crypto. The US and Iran reached a peace agreement, pulling a real geopolitical risk premium off the table. And today the BOJ hiked rates to 1%, the move that's crashed BTC by 20%+ four times in a row since 2024, and this time it barely moved the needle, dip to 65.6K, back to 66K within hours. Fear and Greed is at 25 now, up from 14 last week. Still fear, but climbing fast. None of these are small things individually. Together they read like a market that's been pricing in bad news for months and is now running out of bad news to price in. I'm not saying this is the bottom, plenty of times in this cycle a relief rally has faded back into the range. But three consecutive catalysts resolving without a crash is a different pattern than what we've seen since the correction started. What's everyone watching now? Are you treating this as the start of a real recovery, or just a calm before more volatility?